Can Andy Dalton Lead The Bengals To A Super Bowl? The Numbers Say Yes He Can

Quarterback. Many believe it to be the most important position in football. It’s one of the most crucial elements in making it to the Super Bowl.There are a select few that question whether or not Andy Dalton can lead the Bengals to a Super Bowl. I believe he can and here are the numbers that suggest why courtesy of PointAfter.

For this segment, I decided to compare Dalton with two quarterbacks who have recently made Super Bowl appearances: Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. The following graphs will show a comparison of each of the quarterbacks up to their sixth season. Obviously, Russell Wilson has only played for five seasons so keep that in mind.

Passing Yards Over Time

As you can see, Dalton ascended higher than both Ryan and Wilson in his 1^st three seasons. Dalton shockingly dipped in 2015, but remember he was injured during that season and missed time. In 2016, Dalton is very close to where Matt Ryan was in his 6^th year and exactly where Russell Wilson was in his 5^th year.

Career Passing Yards Per Game

In passing yards per game over time, Dalton shined early then dropped a bit, but regained his form in his 5^th and 6^th seasons.  In 2016, Dalton appeared to finish in line with Russell Wilson’s 4^th season. This is a season is which Wilson threw for a higher rate than the previous year in which the Seahawks went to the Super Bowl.

Career Passing TDs/Ints

Andy also stacks up similarly to Ryan and Wilson in his 5^th season and seems as if he would’ve eclipsed 30 touchdowns without injury. 2013 was a good year for touchdowns, but bad in terms of turnovers. Within the last two seasons, Dalton has posted back to back seasons with under 10 interceptions. This is something Matt Ryan never accomplished at this point in his career.

Passing TDs Over Time

Dalton and Russell seem to have a similar pattern here while Matt Ryan has a steady climb in production over time.

Career Completion Percentage

We can see here that Dalton has displayed a similar completion percentage to both Ryan and Wilson over time, but has yet to approach 68% during a season.

Career Passer Rating

Dalton’s ascension in years 5 & 6 shows he had an equal or higher passer rating than Ryan at this point in Ryan’s career

Career Rushing Yards Per Game

Just for kicks, I decided to throw this chart in to show how close in career rushing yards per game Dalton is to Russell Wilson.

Now, let’s take a look at Dalton’s best season 2015. Courtesy of Rotoviz’s QB Similarity Score, averages of Dalton’s season are compared to similar seasons of other NFL quarterbacks. Check out some of the elite company that Dalton is linked to below.

Dalton was matched up with plenty of quarterbacks who were able to reach the Super Bowl during their careers. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Matt Hasselback and even Joe Flacco were all guys who made a Super Bowl appearance. I think the numbers clearly show Dalton can lead the Bengals to a Super Bowl and has potential to grow even better as a quarterback.

NSC Episode 30 Podcast

On episode 30, I recap the Super Bowl, Terrell Owens HOF snub & whether Andy Dalton can lead our Bengals to a Super Bowl berth. Listen Here.

T.O. Snub Article: http://newstripecity.blogspot.com/2017/02/hall-of-vain-bengals-terrell-owens.html

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"Hall of Vain?" #Bengals Terrell Owens Snubbed

Bengals Wide Receiver Terrell Owens sporting Air Jordan III cleats

“If you align expectations with reality, you will never be disappointed.” - Terrell Owens

 In reality, the Pro Football Hall of Fame was created in 1963 to recognize individuals who were top performers within the sport. The expectations were to identify and commemorate the NFL elite company. There was even a system created in to uphold this process, however, this system is flawed and has disappointed. On November 4^th, the voting committee (made up of 44 sports writers), determined that wide receiver Terrell Owens should not be a member of the 2017 Hall of Fame Class.

2017 Pro Football Hall of Fame Inductees:

Morten Anderson, Kicker

Terrell Owens Davis, Running Back

Kenny Easley, Safety

Jerry Jones, Owner

Jason Taylor, Defensive End

LaDainian Tomlinson, Running Back

Kurt Warner, Quarterback

The committee’s decision to exclude Owens was comical, pathetic and personal.  “Unfortunately I did not make it again this year.”  “Thanks to all my fans & supporters. #FlawedProcess” tweeted Owens. T.O. is right. There is a faulty voting method for the Hall of Fame.

" I think people change, but the media, they never allowed me to change. They never allowed me to be a better person." - Terrell Owens

Get your popcorn ready

In my opinion, it doesn’t make any sense to me for sports writers to have a vote. The overwhelming majority of sports writers haven’t even played a snap in the NFL or college yet they make the decision. As a result of this, the Hall of Fame process has shifted away from its original purpose of honoring players to empowering the media.When Terrell Davis and Morten Anderson get nods before T.O., eyebrows should be raised. The decision to deny Owens his Hall of Fame bid was clearly payback for how Owens treated the media during his career.

I’ve always felt like players are in a lose-lose situation when it comes to the media. They are hounded with questions they clearly shouldn’t answer or be asked in the first place, yet the responsibility always falls on the player’s shoulders. These are the same people intentionally provoke players and fish for negative information to pit teammates against one another, but the players are the ones who get the blame. Now I’m not taking complete blame away from Owens, but I don’t see how any of that matters in the HOF process.

Terrell Owens had 9 recs/122 yards in the Super Bowl

Career Receiving Yards	15,934
Career Receptions	1,078
Pro Bowls	7x (2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2007)
1st Team All Pro	5x  (2000,2001,2002,2004,2007)

Numbers don’t lie. Owens is ranked 2^nd all-time in career receiving yards behind hall-of-famer Jerry Rice. If that’s not impressive, Owens also has 624 more career receiving yards than Randy Moss. Owens is ranked 8^th in all-time receptions and 3^rd in all-time receiving touchdowns. Based off those stats alone, Owens should be wearing a gold jacket.

Chad Ochocinco & T.O. 

Some have said  Owens was a “cancer” and shouldn’t get in even with those numbers. I absolutely hate that excuse. The Hall of Fame is about individual accomplishments… not team building. Boomer Esiason even took up for Owens after his snub. Players like Randy Moss and our own Chad Johnson were considered “cancers” by the media at one point during their careers. That still isn’t an excuse for them to be excluded from the Hall of Fame. 

We all are familiar with Owens and were excited when he signed with our Bengals back in 2010. This was an exciting moment for me because he was one of my favorite receivers playing for my favorite team. Although we went 4-12 that year, Owens was the lone bright spot for that season.  He appeared in 14 games and recorded 72 receptions, 983 receiving yards, and 9 touchdowns. Owens did speak out about some issues in Cincy, but these were the same issues our fan base has harped about for years.Some issues that are still being brought up to this day.

After this disaster, the NFL should simply take matters into their own hands and amend the voting process. Clearly current and former NFL players were upset about T.O.’s snub.  The voting power should be assigned to a committee made up of current hall of fame players and/or NFLPA members. In my mind, this would definitely help balance things out and keep the media’s influence out of the process.

"Maualuga Mulligan?": Time For The #Bengals To Let Rey Go?

Rey Maualuga back at USC

August 25th, 2009. This day was one of joy for me as a fan. It was officially draft season. Our Bengals had already landed my favorite offensive tackle Andre Smith in the first-round. In the second-round, there were two possibilities at linebacker: James Laranitis or Rey Maualuga.

Obviously Laranitis was a local favorite due to the Ohio State connection. I’m sure you remember, Laranitis ended up being picked before the Bengals were on the clock. For what it's worth, Laranitis  didn't live up to expectations either. With the 38th pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, our Cincinnati Bengals selected Rey Maualuga, linebacker, out of the University of Southern California.

Inititally, I was super excited. All I could think of were the flashbacks of Maualuga’s 48 yard interception returned for a touchdown against my Buckeyes. This guy was First Team All-Pac-10 from 2006-2008, 2008 Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year, 2008 Unanimous All-American; Rose Bowl MVP. Rey seemed at the time to be destined for NFL greatness. After losing Odell Thurman, I felt at the time that Maualuga would be a steal and a star for the Bengals. My brother even bought me a Rey Maualuga Bengals jersey after the draft.

Rey has struggled with shaking mental errors

We all know what happened afterwards. From the mental errors, to the bad angles, to the missed tackles and the lackluster performances. In 2012, his contract year, Rey showed a slight glimmer of hope. The Bengals brought in undrafted free agent rookie linebacker Vontaze Burfict to push Maualuga in training camp. Rey finished the season with 122 total tackles, his highest output ever. Even with this career year, it was too late  because the fans had already soured on the 2009 2nd round pick.

To the fans dismay, management re-signed Maualuga to a two-year, $6.5 million contract during free agency in 2013. Due to the mental errors, the Bengals coaching staff  decided to give the play-calling responsibilities to Vontaze Burfict. They still however kept Rey in the middle. Rey still continued to regress on the field and played second fiddle to Burfict. In 2015, Maualuga was once again a free agent. The Bengals considered signing Karlos Dansby as a replacement, but ultimately decided to once again bring back Maualuga. 

Around 2014, the linebacker position began to evolve as a result of the emergence of tight ends in the passing game. Linebackers had to be smaller, faster, solid tacklers & hold up in coverage. The NFL transformed into a passing league during this period and as a result, Maualuga became a dinosaur. The Bengals base defense transitioned to the nickel and significantly reduced Maualuga's snaps.

Rey Maualuga 2016

According to FootballOutsiders, Maualuga accounted for only 29.9% of the total snaps on defense for the entire 2016 season. Given his minimized role, he was basically stole $4 million from the Bengals last year. According to Spotrac, Maualuga has a 2017 cap hit of $3.7 million dollars, without any dead cap. 

This means that the Bengals could cut him for free and recoup $3.7 million. Money that could be used to retain new or upcoming free agents. Maualuga has had his fair share of chances, but like me and my Maualuga jersey, it's time for #58 and the Bengals to part ways. 

"McCarron's Market Place": How Valuable is He?

One of the hottest topics of the offseason has been whether or not the Bengals will trade quarterback AJ McCarron. In his exit interview, McCarron spoke like a guy who was certain that his wish for an opportunity to start would happen. With a potential 8-10 teams in need of a quarterback, the Bengals should expect to receive some inquiries. Duke Tobin recent told Cincinnati Enquirer beat writer Jim Owczarski just how valuable McCarron is.  No one definitively knows McCarron’s value. We will examine areas to assess his value and potential suitors.

AJ McCarron vs. the 49ers

AJ McCarron’s Resume:

Age: 26	Experience: 3 Years	Draft Pick: 5th Round | 164th Pick
Remaining Contract:  735k / 1 Year	College: Alabama	Height / Weight: 6’3 220 pounds
Regular Season Games Started: 3	Regular Season Passing Yards / Game: 184	Regular Season Total Passing TDs: 4
Regular Season  Interceptions: 0	Regular Season QB Rating: 102.4	Regular Season Starter Record: 2-1
Postseason  Games Started: 1	Postseason Passing Yards: 212	Postseason Total Passing TDs: 1
Postseason Interceptions: 1	Postseason QB Rating: 68.3	Postseason Starter Record: 0-1

Potential Suitors:

1. Arizona Cardinals

•  Carson Palmer contemplating retirement
• GM has showed a strong interest in Bengals players (Carson Palmer, Jermaine Gresham, Frostee Rucker, etc.)
• High-value draft picks
• Attempted to trade up with the Bengals during 2015 draft.

2. San Francisco 49ers

•  New GM in John Lynch
• Kyle Shanahan rumored to become the new head coach
• Prior trade history
• High-value draft picks

3. Los Angeles Rams

• Insurance for Jared Goff
• Won’t be able to offer much in draft picks, but could offer up players
• Prior QB trade history (Ragone ; Ryan Fitzpatrick )
• Pre-Draft visit with McCarron

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

• McCarron could give the Jaguars options at QB
• Tom Coughlin visited Bengals 2016 training camp
• Prior trade history; high-value draft picks
• Pre-Draft visit with McCarron

5. Chicago Bears

•  Ready to move on from Jay Cutler
• High-value draft picks
• NFC team

6. New York Jets

• High-value draft picks

7. Houston Texans

• Insurance for Osweiler

8. Cleveland Browns

• Pre-Draft visit with McCarron
• Hue Jackson prior trade history
• Highly unlikely; Mike Brown hates them

Reasons for McCarron Interest:

Winner-- McCarron has proven he can not only win on a college level, but also in the NFL. He almost pulled an upset over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2015 Wildcard Playoff matchup.

Low Cost­-- Would allow teams cap flexibility.

Experience-- Has three years of NFL experience. Has played in 7 total games.

Age-- Only 26 years old.

Health-- Outside of his rookie year, McCarron has been able to stay healthy.

Trade Value Rumors & News:

• In 2016, Bill Polian stated he thinks McCarron is the #1 Quarterback teams will want to trade for.

• A year ago, Peter King said he believes McCarron is worth as much as a first round pick.

• Per WalterFootball, AFC & NFC general managers believe QB Jimmy Garoppolo would for a second-third round pick and don’t believe he’s worthy of a first round price tag.

• General Managers have cited the trades of Alex Smith, Matt Cassell & Matt Schaub as outliers for value. They stated these were all quarterbacks with more starts & experience traded for second round picks.

• The Broncos & Texans are rumored to be both be interested in Tony Romo.

• The Texans are rumored to be interested in Jimmy Garoppolo for the right price. Veteran Jay Cutler is also in play.

• The Browns are rumored to be interested in Jimmy Garoppolo; Tyrod Taylor if he becomes available.

• Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians expressed his desire to work with Jay Cutler numerous times.

• In 2016, GM Rick Spielman attempted to acquire a quarterback. He never confirms that he contacted the Bengals, but said: “Some teams asked for a first-round pick and a core young player”.

Market Assessment:

After reviewing this information, I believe that realistically the Bengals could acquire a third-round and fifth-round pick for AJ McCarron. I think the highest a team would surrender would be a second-round pick. I also wouldn’t rule out McCarron being dealt for another player. The Bengals have executed player for player deals in the past.

Being that AJ didn’t play this year, I think that will decrease his trade value. In terms of the best trade partner, I think it would be the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have talented players, could supply the Bengals with high-value draft selections, and would ensure McCarron would be shipped out of the AFC. One thing to keep in mind is that if the Bengals do not receive a valuable offer for McCarron, he will likely to return for one more season.

NSC Podcast Episode 29: Bryght Future?

On this episode of NSC, I talk about the signing and impact of Cincinnati native Bryson Albright. I also discuss the 2017 Bengals pro bowlers, AJ McCarron's trade value & Bengals news & rumors.

Listen Here



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Podcast (iTunes)

“Bryght Future?” Local Prep Star LB/DE Bryson Albright Signs w/ Bengals

“Bryght Future?” 

Local Prep Star LB/DE Bryson Albright Signs w/ Bengals

Bryson Albright is yet another Cincinnati native and St. Xavier alum to make the NFL. During his senior year at ST. X, Albright recorded 70 tackles and 11 sacks to help lead the Bombers to a state semi-final appearance in 2011. After high school, Albright attended Miami University where he played defensive end. He finished his senior season with 51 tackles, 7 sacks, 3 fumble recoveries and 1 interception. 

Bryson Albright (#5) in high school

On January 24^th, the Cincinnati Bengals signed Bryson Albright to their Reserve/Future roster. Before the signing, Albright was a 3-4 outside linebacker for the Buffalo Bills and a member of their practice squad. In his only active game of the season for Buffalo, Albright was primarily used as a special teams coverage specialist against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

 Although undrafted, Albright impressed the Bills’ staff during preseason with his “burst, versatility, pass rushing moves; endurance”.  He was considered a great fit for Rex Ryan’s scheme and as a result made the final roster.

NSC SCOUTING BREAKDOWN

You can see video of Albright wreaking havoc on opposing offenses here (He’s #95).

Size: 

Listed on the Buffalo Bills website as 6'5 243 pounds.

Position:

 3-4 LB | 4-3 DE

Film Room: 

Albright is undersized for a 4-3 scheme defensive end, but is very explosive off the snap. He is very fluid and natural when it comes to rushing the passer.  He's a solid tackler who has a nose for the football especially when it comes to forcing turnovers.

Synopsis:

Bryson Albright strikes me as a guy who the Bengals will not only utilize on special teams, but could also push for a role on the defensive line. Although undersized, he’s a player who could be used in a similar fashion as former Bengals’ Chris Carter & James Harrison. I expect to see Albright lineup at SAM linebacker and/or defensive end.  

Paul Guenther recently stated he wanted to play edge rushers at their natural position regardless of their size. Guenther also emphasized the importance of creating turnovers. It is very possible that Albright could see time at defensive end and special teams during the upcoming 2017 preseason. The general thought for the coaching staff is that the more a player can do, the better their chances are of making the roster. Bryson Albright seems to fit this mold very well. Definitely a guy to keep an eye on.